mid-term elections

Is Obama 'Making Himself Look Good At The Expense Of The Team'?

Boy, it seems like it was only yesterday that Obama was cheered as the end to Clintonian triangulation. Does Obama have serious problems with the base? Bob Brigham seems to think so:

If Obama were leading the Democratic Party in accomplishing good things that made voters' lives better, an increase in Obama numbers could be seen as a sign that Obama could have coattails, that his popularity would bring Democrats along for the ride.

Unfortunately, Obama seems to be pursuing a different strategy. Instead of leading Democrats, Obama is triangulating against the Democratic base. This became clear in the administration's failure on health care turning into attacks on the left.

For Obama, health care seems to be following a model of raising the president's approval at the expense of depressing the base during the midterms. Everyone on the ballot this fall with a 'D' after their name should be alarmed by this:

White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has been telling Democrats a win on the health issue will reverse the slide in public opinion, just as passage of another controversial proposal, the North American Free Trade Agreement, lifted President Bill Clinton in the polls.

This is triangulation at its worst. This is personal gain at the expense of the party.

There is a reason Obama campaigned on the public option and against mandates, instead of vice-versa. Same with his pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class. Yet now, instead of Democrats being able to campaign on the popular public option, Democrats will have to play defense as to why they raised taxes on middle class health care plans while turning the IRS into the bagman for some of the most hated companies in America.

In conclusion, Obama isn't in good shape. Halfway through the midterms, Obama as coach is giving a lockroom pep talk that is little more than "we couldn't have done any better in the first half because our team is so bad." And his strategy in the second half appears to be focused on making himself look good even if it is at the expense of the rest of the team. Which means even if he does start looking better in the polls, it might not be good news for Democrats in 2010.



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(1954 - not complicated, but no less surprising - even to Robert Mitchum)
(Robert Mitchum with Simone Sylva at the Cannes Film Festival 1954)

With the Korean War truce holding, Joe McCarthy stopped dead in his tracks and a gang of Puerto Rican nationals shooting up the House chamber wounding five Congressmen, 1954 would probably be less complicated than other years during the Eisenhower tenure but no less momentous. There was the fall of Dien Bien Phu and what would eventually become our foray into Southeast Asia, the landmark School Desegregation decision by The Supreme Court, the end of British occupation of Egypt - everything that would have some repercussions for the future, but what seemed at the time like orderly passage.

So today's recap of events from 1954 offers further proof that, no matter how innocent or innocuous something may seem at the time, it invariably winds up playing a major role in a future we hadn't anticipated.


Dems Want Some Healthcare Reforms to Kick In Before Mid-Terms

As expected, Dems are pushing hard for something to show the voters. Too bad they didn't just drop the Medicare age, but oh well:

Democrats are pushing Senate leaders and the White House to speed up key benefits in the health reform bill to 2010, eager to give the party something to show taxpayers for their $900 billion investment in an election year.

The most significant changes to the health care system wouldn’t kick in until 2013 — two election cycles away. With Republicans expected to make next year a referendum on health care reform, Democrats are quietly lobbying to push up the effective dates on popular programs, so they'll have something to run on in the congressional midterm elections.

Democrats are anxious to mix the good with the bad since some of the pain would be phased in early, including more than $100 billion in industry fees that critics say could be passed on to consumers.

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“We want to be able, within the cost framework and the implementation framework, to have as much start as early as possible, even though we know all of it can’t,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), a Finance Committee member who is working with other senators on the effort. “And the White House wants to have as much as possible to start.”

Under the Democratic wish list, senior citizens would receive discounts on brand-name drugs next year. Small businesses that provide insurance would see tax credits. And a $5 billion high-risk pool would cover people with preexisting conditions.

Democratic strategists expect the 2010 election to present a stark contrast between the parties, particularly if the health care bill receives minimal Republicans support. The front-load strategy could help blunt GOP attacks on the bill as a toxic mix of higher taxes, rising premiums and cuts to Medicare.