One of the flimsiest arguments you hear not only on Fox News but by lazy analysts in the mainstream media is that Trump's indictments strengthen him politically. Wrong!
As Matt Robison shows in Newsweek, this is just more of the usual ridiculous both-sides punditry.
Trump's minor, short-term polling bumps are actually the result of something much more boring and technical: It's called differential non-response bias, and it basically means his super-supporters might get more fired up to answer calls from pollsters for just a few days. It fits the pattern here pretty well.
The indictments aren't helping Trump and they aren't the reason he's increasing his lead. For that, you can thank the fact that Ron DeSantis is a historically terrible candidate. As the second place contender, he's widely viewed as the most likely Trump alternative, and as he has gotten more exposed in the national press, he's dropped half of his support. From March 10 through August 1, DeSantis went from 31.4 percent to 15.6 percent.
And where did those voters go? That ain't exactly rocket science either. Surveys show that Trump is the second choice of around 40 percent of DeSantis supporters. Lo and behold, as DeSantis has sunk, about 40 percent of the 15 point evaporation in his support has now shown up in Trump's column.In this video by Robison based on his analysis, he systematically shows why all of these serious legal charges are actually very politically bad for Trump in the long run, even if he continues to dominate the Republican presidential primary.
