Yes, Donald Trump barely eked out a win in the Iowa caucuses with just over 50% of the vote. Yes, the person who came in 2nd was only in the 20s followed closely by Nikki Haley, just under 20.
BUT a key takeaway from on the ground reporting that is not getting as much traction is actually a huge indicator of just how weak Trump is going into the federal election.
Maddow and the entire MSNBC Iowa Caucus discussion team covered it really well:
STEVE KORNACKI: You asked the question here. Donald Trump is convicted. Do you consider him fit to be president? Again, this is our entrance poll of Republican caucus goers. So yes, similar, you know, very similar spread here. Yes is 63%. And I can just show you the breakdown on this is, those who say he’s fit to serve, 71%. Then who say they’re going to vote for him tonight. It’s 13% for DeSantis. It is 6% for Haley. Among those who say no, Trump would not be fit to serve. Number is Haley. Remember, Haley seems to be gobbling up the lion’s share of the anti-Trump votes. You see 50% for Haley with this group, DeSantis is getting 30%, Trump is getting 9%.
And actually, Trump is barely edging out Ramaswamy, who’s getting 8% with this group. But yeah, this is about a one third, two third divide about the legitimacy of the 20 election, about Trump’s legal situation. And you could just see how it, that is the divide you’re seeing there in the party.
MADDOW: Again, though, big picture is the big picture here. This means that of people turning out to caucus in Iowa. A third of them think that if Donald Trump is convicted, he is not fit to be president. In this incredibly conservative electorate where Trump is going to run away with the Iowa caucuses by a mile and then some. Still, a third of that electorate says if he’s convicted, MM-MM.
They’re going to nominate him nationwide? When even a third of Iowa caucus goers say no, he can’t be president if he’s convicted? I’m sorry, but [whispers] He’s going to be convicted.
ARI MELBER: Rachel, there’s overwhelming evidence in several of these cases, so I can’t say what’s going to happen. But there’s very strong evidence.
MADDOW: I can, not a lawyer. [whispering] He’s going to be convicted.
You read that right. A solid one third of caucus goers said that if Donald Trump is convicted, he is not fit to be President. And these are his supporters! The solid red, very conservative, sleep with a Bible on their night stand, love guns, hate women's rights, want a giant wall and huge deportation camps on the 1st day. THESE PEOPLE think he is not fit to be President - well, a third of them.
If this is the case in Iowa, think about how soft Republicans or independents feel? If Biden can peel away even 10% of them, Trump is toast.
